The Sarcoma in a Raila Presidential Ticket

I have been keeping abreast with our fluctuating political climate as a patriot and hoping credibility will one day take a foot hold in Kenya. In shaping the destiny of Kenya’s politics, Prime Minister Raila Odinga has indisputably presided over our political affairs like a colossus in many respects, making contributions in his own unique ways. He is referred in his memoire as an enigma in Kenya’s Politics. Raila has been an activist, a detainee, a minister plenipotentiary, and a Prime Minister to boot. In his adventurous political experience, he has attracted controversy and earned accolades in an equal measure. But the forth coming general elections unlike for many others, is a make or break affair for him as ODM flag bearer.

Listening to the political pundits, it is no secret that Raila’s ascendency to the throne is not a straight forward case anymore. One school of thought cites a collusion of vested interests ganging up to block him while another view espouses a self-inflicted destruction of his innovation center as a factor that led to loss of creativity in exerting political influence across the Country. Whatever the case might be, what is not in contention is that Raila will have to work overtime to galvanize his troubled ODM outfit in order to succeed.  According to Mutahi Ngunyi a self-styled prophet in political analysis from the only consulting house in Kenya for that matter, Kenya’s fourth president is projected to go with Musalia Mudavadi. This analysis only goes to show the symptomatic cues and intricacy defining Raila’s ticket to the State House considering that Musalia was his immediate deputy in ODM before the fallout. There are myriads other challenges that face ODM campaigns. The voters will factor in their decisions among other things, the role played by ODM luminaries in Post-election violence and the predicament of the Ocampo four. They have questions as to what caused the disintegration of the Pentagon, they are now querying Miguna’s expose in his tenacious feat to peeling back the mask. Seriously, there are just too many hurdles along the way.

Besides all these issues, I think the big mistake for ODM was the inability to understand Memorandum of understanding, the hopeless agreement they entered into a decade ago. The MOU as it came to be known was a farce, a fraud in the inducement for all it is worth. It was never binding because it did not meet the very basics of a consideration. Consequently, when the other party defaulted the terms of the agreement, ODM felt cheated but were left without any legal recourse to enforce their rights. And from that point onwards Kenya entered another phase of political machinations.

In this new era of political realignment ODM and Raila are likely to face a test of their own medicine. Musalia on other hand has a very narrow chance to win for his lack of concept to exploit the wide opportunities. In the meantime, Dr. Willy Mutunga remains the King maker, if he chooses to play ball, to bar contenders with questionable integrity. In which case the under dogs have got reasons to smile.

And no doubt Kenya is once again at a crossroads. God help us all.

By Mohamed Adan Wato, Major (Rtd.). Mohamed is the author of the book "Walking a Tight Rope Amidst Kenya Post Election Violence".
 

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