Tifa poll: Opposition Supporters Say Gachagua Should Not Run for President

A new Tifa poll shows that many Kenyans who oppose President William Ruto’s re-election believe former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua should support a single opposition candidate rather than run for president himself. 

The survey also found that most respondents oppose the Broad-Based Government arrangement between Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

The survey found that among respondents who do not support Ruto’s re-election, 33 per cent said the opposition would have a better chance of winning if Gachagua were cleared to contest but instead endorsed another candidate. 

A further 29 percent said that if his impeachment case prevents him from running, he should still support a united opposition candidate. Only 14 percent preferred Gachagua to contest the presidency on his own, suggesting that many opposition supporters see a united front as the strongest electoral strategy. 

Meanwhile, 19 per cent were undecided, while five per cent believed Ruto could not be defeated under any circumstances. The findings are based on household interviews with 2,048 respondents across nine regions. They indicate that Gachagua’s legal challenge remains an important factor in opposition planning ahead of the 2027 General Election.

A separate national survey by Tifa found that 52 per cent of Kenyans oppose the Broad-Based Government (BBG) arrangement between Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). In comparison, 30 per cent support the arrangement, while 15 percent expressed no opinion and four per cent said they were unaware of it.

According to Tifa, support for the BBG has remained broadly unchanged over the past year and has rarely exceeded one-third of the electorate. However, opinion differs across the country. Support has increased in Central Rift, the Coast and Lower Eastern, but has fallen sharply in Northern Kenya, Nyanza, Mt Kenya and Western. In those regions, support has dropped by 33 percentage points since November.

The survey also points to divisions within ODM. Most party supporters now identify with the Linda Mwananchi faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, while support for the rival Linda Ground faction associated with Oburu Odinga has declined. The findings suggest that internal disagreements and regional differences continue to limit the coalition’s wider appeal.

Tifa also examined voter registration and found that 83 percent of respondents said they are registered to vote. However, registration rates remain much lower among young people. Half of respondents aged between 18 and 24 said they had not registered because they did not have a National Identity Card, compared with 11 per cent of respondents aged 45 and above.

Other reasons given for not registering included lack of time, cited by 22 percent of respondents, lack of interest in politics, also at 22 percent, and practical difficulties such as distant registration centres or administrative obstacles. Only 57 percent of respondents aged 18 to 24 said they were registered, compared with 97 percent of those aged over 45.

The survey also identified regional differences in voter registration. Nyanza recorded the highest registration rate at 89 percent, while South Rift had the lowest at 66 percent.