Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga
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Former Prime Minister Raila Odinga's future political trajectory remains critical in shaping Kenya's upcoming 2027 presidential elections, despite his recent unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson position.
While his AUC campaign was unsuccessful, Odinga's enduring influence continues reverberating throughout Kenya's political circles. President William Ruto, whose support in the pivotal Mount Kenya region appears to be waning, faces a potentially significant challenge should Odinga choose to contest the presidency in 2027. The Mount Kenya vote was instrumental in securing Ruto's victory in 2022, making the region's shifting allegiance a cause for concern for the incumbent.
Within Mount Kenya, Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has been actively consolidating his influence and strategically forming alliances with some of Odinga's allies from the Azimio coalition. Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu, a Gachagua ally, highlights Odinga's pivotal role in determining Ruto's future, suggesting that Ruto's endorsement of Odinga's AUC bid was a calculated manoeuvre to gain political leverage. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta notably maintained a silent stance throughout Odinga's AUC campaign, neither endorsing nor opposing the bid.
Gachagua, in contrast, publicly voiced his support for Odinga and praised his resilience following the AUC defeat, a move widely interpreted as a potential olive branch signalling a possible political alliance ahead of the 2027 elections. Political analysts suggest Odinga's political standing has been strengthened despite the AUC setback, as his support base remains robust and influential. Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi stated that whichever political faction secures Odinga's support stands to gain significantly.
Odinga is currently evaluating his next move after focusing primarily on his AUC campaign, a period that saw him engage with leaders across the African continent. Some critics who initially viewed the AUC bid as a pathway for Odinga's exit from Kenyan politics are now reassessing their strategies. Calls are increasing for him to resume leadership of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party and to re-enter active politics. His temporary absence from the ODM leadership has created a vacuum that many believe only he can fill.
Further underscoring Odinga's continued political importance, Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei has suggested amending the constitution to create a Prime Minister position, potentially allowing Odinga to serve in such a role.
Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma has advocated for transforming Odinga's AUC campaign into a broader political movement. Had Odinga succeeded in securing the AUC seat, it would have potentially cleared the path for Ruto to consolidate support in Odinga's traditional strongholds.
However, Odinga's former Azimio allies are now hoping he will rejoin them in opposing Ruto's administration. While awaiting Odinga's declaration regarding his political intentions, ODM members have expressed appreciation for Ruto's support of Odinga's AUC campaign. The ODM's recent decision to withdraw its pursuit of parliamentary leadership positions suggests an effort to maintain political goodwill, possibly to lay the groundwork for a future alliance with Ruto.
Migori Senator Eddy Oketch anticipates that Odinga will soon unveil his plans, further cementing his status as a central figure in Kenyan politics.
Odinga's decisions in the coming months are poised to play a decisive role in shaping the 2027 presidential race and the broader political landscape of Kenya.