Ruto-Raila Alliance Under Strain as ODM Condemns Political Assassinations

The political agreement between President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and opposition leader Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) teeters on the brink as a series of unsettling events threaten to dismantle the unity pact forged between the two political factions.

What began as a promising period of reduced political animosity following the initial handshake agreement has been marred by alarming developments, including political assassinations, growing internal discord, and accusations of state-sponsored violence. The alliance's stability was first shaken by Raila's unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship, a setback that some analysts interpret as a decline in Kenya's international standing. However, more pressing concerns have arisen due to incidents of violence and alleged extrajudicial actions that have cast a dark shadow over the political truce.

The murder of Kasipul MP Ong'ondo Were in April, coupled with the recent death of teacher-blogger Albert Ojwang' while in police custody, has ignited suspicions of state involvement. These incidents have not only deepened fractures within the coalition but have also raised significant questions about the integrity and impartiality of state institutions. Raila has been outspoken in his condemnation of these acts, emphasising the severe erosion of public trust in government institutions. 

"These deaths not only bring immense pain to affected families but also undermine the credibility of the government and security forces," Raila said, reflecting the growing unease among his supporters and the broader public.

Senator Oburu Oginga, Raila's brother and initially an advocate for the power-sharing arrangement, has voiced frustration over his inability to justify these injustices to his constituents. In response, President Ruto has denounced the killing of Ojwang' and has called for a comprehensive and impartial investigation into the matter. He has directed the National Police Service to collaborate with oversight bodies to ensure that justice is served. However, these assurances have done little to quell the growing discontent within ODM.

ODM chairperson Gladys Wanga issued a stern warning, indicating that her party would reconsider its role within the government if accountability is not upheld in the case of MP Were's assassination. The growing discord is further exacerbated by internal critiques within ODM, particularly from key figures such as Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna. Sifuna has questioned the fundamental ideological compatibility between ODM and UDA, emphasising that significant policy differences persist despite the alliance.

Furthermore, Sifuna suggests that Odinga's failure to secure the AUC chairmanship was not due to any deficiency in his qualifications but rather due to apprehensions surrounding Ruto's governance. This assertion adds another layer of complexity to the already strained relationship. Despite initial optimism that the alliance would bring much-needed development to marginalised regions, ODM leaders now fear that a complete breakdown of the agreement is inevitable if the current trajectory continues. ODM Deputy Leader Godfrey Osotsi expresses disappointment, noting that the party entered the agreement in good faith but has observed a stark deviation from initial expectations.

The political unrest has also reignited broader concerns over human rights and governance. Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo emphasises that suppression and intimidation are antithetical to the spirit of the coalition, calling for immediate action against rogue security personnel. Kisumu Woman Representative Ruth Odinga echoes these sentiments, arguing that recent killings point to a troubling pattern of state-sanctioned violence. She stresses that the right to free expression must be protected, warning that leaders would be failing the youth if fear of reprisal continued to silence political discourse.

As tensions escalate, the future of the Ruto-Odinga alliance hangs in the balance. While both leaders acknowledge the need to address security concerns and maintain stability, the prevailing mistrust and potential for political miscalculations may ultimately push ODM to reconsider its place in the government.