ODM Braces for Succession Showdown

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga is set to preside over a crucial meeting of the party's Central Management Committee.

This influential 12-member body holds significant authority in making pivotal decisions and recommendations concerning the party's affairs before presenting them to larger committees. The forthcoming meeting, scheduled for Tuesday, will determine whether the party's grassroots elections should be postponed once again or if a resolution can be reached to alleviate the growing tensions and concerns within the party's ranks. Former Kakamega County Governor Wickliffe Oparanya has confirmed that the meeting will take place. The ODM party has been embroiled in intense internal conflicts over Raila's potential successor should he secure the African Union Commission Chairperson position.

Factions have emerged vying for leadership roles within the party in anticipation of Raila's potential departure. The National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed has informed the Star newspaper that the meeting will decide the fate of the upcoming party elections, emphasizing that all members have the right to contest any position during the elections. The competition for positions of leadership within the ODM party is well underway. Junet Mohamed, who also serves as the party's Director of Elections and Campaigns, has stated that the party will adhere to the ODM constitution when navigating its succession and elections. Initially, the ODM had planned to hold its grassroots elections in April but there are concerns that the party may opt for a staggered approach due to the potential impact on Raila Odinga's reputation as he campaigns for the AUC role.

Raila Odinga has received support from President William Ruto and several East African leaders in preparation for the AUC elections scheduled for February 2025. Having led the ODM party since 2005, the former prime minister is determined to develop a solid succession plan that solidifies and preserves his legacy despite the competition and rivalries within the party. When questioned about how the ODM will address the delicate matter of succession, the party's National Treasurer Timothy Bosire explains that the party's leadership will strictly adhere to the party's Constitution. He assures, "We are ready to maintain stability under our leader's capable guidance. We have faith in his direction and dedication to maintaining stability."

Bosire emphasizes the significance of aspirations and hobbies as indicators of internal democracy, reiterating that the ODM has a solid framework, operational organs, and a clear constitution to address any obstacles that may arise. The endorsement of Raila Odinga's two deputies, former governors Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, has ignited factional conflicts within the party. Joho, who plans to run for president in 2027, has gained the support of coastal MPs after campaigning along the entire coastal strip. Despite discouragement, Joho remains determined and vows to engage with people in every remote village before reaching out to the entire country. Oparanya, as the first deputy party leader of the ODM, is also vying to succeed Raila by relying on his loyalty and recent involvement in anti-government protests.

However, Wandayi, John Mbadi and Babu Owino's ambitions to secure leadership roles after Raila's potential departure have irritated Joho and Oparanya. This has resulted in divisions and conflicting groups within the party, further exacerbating the internal tensions surrounding the party's succession plan.