Kenya's Long Rains to Start Early with Mixed Regional Patterns – Met

The Kenya Meteorological Department has revealed that the anticipated long rains for March-April-May (MAM) are projected to start earlier than usual this year, beginning in February.

This shift in timing is significant, as certain regions may witness increased rainfall extending into June, while others could see the precipitation tapering off by mid to late May. The latest forecast indicates substantial variability in rainfall distribution across the country. Areas such as the Lake Victoria Basin, the South Rift Valley, and parts of the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, including Siaya, Kisumu, and Kericho, are expected to receive persistent rain from February onward.

These regions are projected to experience rainfall amounts at or exceeding the long-term average, although occasional dry spells may occur. Conversely, the Central and North Rift Valley regions, including Nakuru and Baringo counties are likely to receive near to below-average rainfall. Northwestern counties such as Turkana and Samburu are also forecasted to experience slightly below-average precipitation, although areas adjacent to South Sudan may receive increased rainfall.

In the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, which encompasses Nairobi, a pattern of intermittent rains is anticipated, with totals expected to remain near or below seasonal averages. Similarly, the Southeastern Lowlands, including Kitui and Machakos, may receive diminished rainfall amounts. In contrast, regions such as Kajiado and parts of Taita Taveta are positioned to benefit from more favourable precipitation conditions.

The Northeastern counties, particularly Mandera and Garissa, should prepare for occasional rains that are expected to fall below long-term averages. The Coastal Strip, encompassing Mombasa and Kilifi, is predicted to experience below-average rainfall, with Lamu likely to receive even less moisture. The Kenya Meteorological Department has underscored the mixed blessings of the anticipated rains from March to May, as these weather changes will affect various sectors differently.

Climate variability drivers, including tropical cyclones and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), contribute an element of unpredictability to the forecast, prompting officials to encourage continuous monitoring of updates from the Department. The MJO, a significant atmospheric phenomenon with cycles lasting 30 to 60 days, notably influences tropical weather patterns, thereby affecting rainfall, cloud formation, and wind conditions. Historically, it has been associated with enhanced rainfall in Western Kenya during its initial phases, while in Eastern regions, increased rainfall tends to occur in the later stages.