
Congolese Army Soldiers
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As the February 15 elections for the African Union Commission (AUC) approach, President William Ruto's role as chairperson of the East African Community (EAC) in the ongoing peace talks regarding the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is under scrutiny.
His diplomatic acumen is being tested amid an escalating security crisis in the region, which could significantly impact Raila Odinga’s candidacy for the AUC chairperson role. The precarious situation in the DRC has introduced geopolitical tensions that may influence the voting dynamics among key regional blocs, particularly the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the EAC. Mr. Odinga's prospects largely depend on President Ruto's effectiveness in addressing these diplomatic hurdles.
Challenges arose when DRC President Felix Tshisekedi opted not to participate in a scheduled meeting with Ruto, choosing instead to attend a separate session convened by SADC. This decision was perceived by some as a sign of diminished confidence in President Ruto’s leadership and has raised concerns among Congolese regarding Kenya’s potential alignment with Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who faces allegations of supporting M23 rebels.
The SADC, which consists of 16 member states, convened an Extraordinary Summit in Harare, Zimbabwe, aimed at addressing the DRC's security crisis. The bloc's perspective on the ongoing conflict is likely to influence the AUC elections, especially if they view Kenya’s role as obstructive to peace efforts in the DRC. Regional and international stakeholders continue to seek solutions to reduce hostilities in Goma and ease tensions in Kinshasa. Former Kenyan ambassador to Korea Ngovi Kitau notes that the capture of Goma by M23 rebels has given neighbouring nations grounds to question Kenya's handling of the crisis.
He remarks that Kenya's historically strained relations with neighbouring countries have previously hindered its bids for regional leadership positions, such as the AUC chair recently contested against Chad. Governance and security strategist Prof. Peter Kagwanja emphasizes that a swift resolution to the conflict and a humanitarian response are critical for Kenya's credibility and could directly impact its standing in the AUC elections.
President Ruto's recent discussions with French President Emmanuel Macron and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have sparked unease among some African leaders who advocate for "African solutions to African problems," expressing a preference for discreet diplomacy rather than overt international involvement. Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi highlights that Kenya's management of the DRC crisis could significantly affect Mr Odinga's candidacy, contingent upon perceptions held by members of the African Union.
Contrarily, Professor Gilbert Khadiagala, an expert in international relations, posits that the DRC crisis might not markedly affect the AUC elections, given that the campaign for votes is largely complete. However, he acknowledges that Kenya’s actions could still sway the DRC's voting behaviour regarding the commission. At a virtual meeting on January 29, EAC heads of state rallied President Tshisekedi to engage directly with all relevant stakeholders, including the M23 and other armed factions.
South Africa's Minister of Defence, Angie Motshekga, disclosed that President Cyril Ramaphosa had warned Rwandan forces that any continued aggression towards the South African National Defence Force in the DRC would be deemed a declaration of war. This comment drew criticism from President Kagame, who characterizes the SADC's involvement in the DRC as an offensive military engagement.