Raila's Legacy at Stake as AUC Election Nears

In a critical moment for Kenyan politics, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga is on the verge of potentially securing a historic nomination as the new chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC).

The election, scheduled for this weekend in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, will involve forty-nine heads of state and government who will make their selections via secret ballot, requiring a two-thirds majority to win. This pivotal decision comes after months of intense campaigning since Odinga and former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo announced his candidacy last year. Raila's bid, backed by President William Ruto and senior members of his government, has seen him actively seeking endorsements from African leaders.

His campaign team claims support from 28 countries, although details regarding these endorsements have not been disclosed. Competing against notable contenders such as Youssouf and former Madagascar Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato, Raila must secure a two-thirds majority in the first voting round to achieve victory. Should no candidate reach the required majority, the election could extend up to five rounds.

Elkanah Odembo, co-chair of Raila's AUC campaign secretariat, has reiterated the push for a decisive first-round win, emphasizing Raila's energy and commitment to the campaign. As anticipation builds, Raila's success could have substantial implications not only for him but also for President Ruto, who has a vested interest in the outcome of this election. Ruto's backing of Raila's candidacy is part of a broader strategy aimed at solidifying his political support, especially in the wake of declining popularity in the Mount Kenya region.

Their partnership, formed last July, has enhanced Ruto's standing in Nyanza, traditionally Raila's political stronghold, and has attracted support from several key allies within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). A successful election for Raila could significantly bolster Ruto's influence in Nyanza, provided that Raila reciprocates by supporting Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027. Gitile Naituli, a leadership and management professor, notes that a Raila victory would enhance Ruto’s respect among African leaders and potentially secure substantial backing from Raila’s backyard.

However, political analysts caution that Raila's ascension to the AUC could create fragmentation within the ODM. Senator Edwin Sifuna of Nairobi has voiced concerns regarding the consequences of any ODM alliance with Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Meanwhile, Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi has expressed scepticism about Ruto's potential political gains from Raila's success, citing the uncertain future of their current partnership.

Conversely, a loss for Raila could pose significant challenges for Ruto, potentially undermining his credibility both domestically and across the continent.