2027 Elections: Mt. Kenya's Voters Weigh Betrayal and Revenge

Mt. Kenya, once a reliable support base for President William Ruto, is now embroiled in political turmoil as Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua prepares to launch his new political party in May. 

The region is witnessing rising discontent and a realignment of allegiances, driven by sentiments of anger, betrayal, and revenge, setting the stage for significant shifts in Kenya's political landscape leading up to the 2027 elections. In the 2022 elections, President Ruto garnered overwhelming support in Mt. Kenya, securing 87 percent of the vote. However, the alliance began to fracture in July 2024 when the Ruto administration appointed a broad-based Cabinet that included allies of Raila Odinga. This move, coinciding with widespread Gen Z protests, alienated many of Ruto's supporters in the region. 

The situation worsened in October 2024 when the government supported the impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, a move perceived by many Mt. Kenya voters as a betrayal. Gachagua was subsequently replaced by Prof Kithure Kindiki, a politician from Tharaka Nithi in the Mt. Kenya East bloc. Currently, seven key factors influence the political decisions in the region: a desire for revenge, regionalism, silent ambitions for the 2032 elections, the "big family" syndrome, fear of isolation, concerns over violence targeting the Mt. Kenya diaspora, and the search for a "bogeyman" to defeat. 

Rigathi Gachagua has positioned himself as a central figure, advocating for Mt. Kenya voters to prioritise removing President Ruto from power in 2027. Former Laikipia Woman Representative Cate Waruguru notes, "Mt. Kenya votes best when it has someone in mind it wants to lock out." She added that the region has consistently rallied against perceived adversaries, from Daniel Moi in the 1990s to Raila Odinga in recent elections, and now the focus is on President Ruto.

However, not everyone in Mt. Kenya shares this sentiment. Murang’a Woman Representative Betty Maina maintains that Ruto remains beloved in the region, stating, "Only a few brainwashed people have a problem with our President," and asserting that they will ensure President Ruto rules for 10 uninterrupted years. Yet, the feeling of betrayal runs deep for many. Former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi, who was dismissed after challenging Ruto's governance style, believes Mt. Kenya will unite with other regions to avenge state-sponsored brutality, corruption, and lies. 

Gachagua has also called on the Mountain to remember the wrongs committed against them, including his impeachment and the heavy taxation burden on ordinary Kenyans. Gachagua himself faces criticism. Gatundu North MP Elijah Kinyanjui, an ally of President Ruto, argues that voters will "avenge" Gachagua for his divisive rhetoric and threats. President Ruto echoed these sentiments, accusing Gachagua of insulting and quarrelling with nearly everyone he encountered as Deputy President—a claim Gachagua denies. 

Political analyst John Okumu warns that the Mountain's unity is at risk as Ruto's strategists seek to divide the bloc. Efforts to create a loyal Mt. Kenya East faction around Embu, Meru, and Tharaka Nithi counties are underway. Gachagua has raised concerns about plans to sponsor presidential aspirants in every Mt. Kenya county to dilute the region's voting power. 

The upcoming by-election in Mbeere North, triggered by Geoffrey Ruku's appointment to Cabinet, will serve as a litmus test for Gachagua's influence in the region. For Ruku and Prof Kindiki, defeating Gachagua and Muturi would be a significant victory and a setback for their rivals.