Ruto Faces Growing Rift in Mt. Kenya

As the 2027 General Election draws nearer, President William Ruto's political dominance in the Mt. Kenya region is facing significant challenges, creating a volatile environment for his allies. 

Rising dissent within the region has sparked fears that their political careers may be in jeopardy, prompting some to contemplate distancing themselves from the President to secure their re-election prospects. The core concern among Ruto's loyalists stems from the increasing possibility that Mt. Kenya might not coalesce behind his re-election bid. Such a scenario could compel President Ruto to seek a running mate from a different region, potentially dismantling the political alliances that underpinned his victory in 2022. 

Further compounding the uncertainty is the potential restructuring of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), the party that sponsored many of his allies in the last election, to accommodate the evolving political dynamics. In an apparent strategic response to this shifting landscape, President Ruto has initiated discussions with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, urging him to merge his Amani National Congress (ANC) party with UDA. This consolidation effort is seen as an attempt to solidify his political base amid growing fragmentation.

Amidst this turbulence, the Service Party (TSP) leader Mwangi Kiunjuri has announced plans to identify and bolster political parties aligned with President Ruto's vision. These parties would not only endorse his re-election but also field candidates who support his leadership. Kiunjuri emphasises the need to mobilise voter turnout through county-level political operatives affiliated with pro-Ruto parties. While acknowledging the prevailing turmoil, he expresses confidence in Ruto's eventual victory and urges elected leaders to fortify their political bases.

Murang'a Woman Representative Betty Maina echoes this sentiment, calling on Mt. Kenya voters to remain steadfast in their support for the President, arguing that such backing is crucial for the region's development. However, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is mounting a formidable challenge to Ruto's influence in Mt. Kenya. Gachagua has intensified his political activities in the region, unveiling the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) as a vehicle to unseat Ruto and his loyalists in 2027. He has openly declared that DCP's primary agenda is to ensure Ruto's defeat. G

Gachagua's growing influence has unsettled Ruto's allies, prompting them to explore alternative political parties to safeguard their positions. Kiunjuri dismisses Gachagua's ambitions, asserting that Mt. Kenya would at worst split its votes, with a significant portion still favouring Ruto. Despite these dismissals, Gachagua maintains that his campaign has caused panic within Ruto's camp. He alleges that the President is on the verge of forming a new party to unite fringe political entities, many from Mt. Kenya. According to Gachagua, Ruto's loyalists have been instructed to infiltrate opposition parties to weaken any movement that could threaten his re-election.

The heightened political uncertainty has triggered widespread apprehension among key political players. Former Jubilee Party stalwart Jamleck Kamau, now aligned with DCP, describes the situation as dire, emphasising that the will of the people ultimately prevails, regardless of past attempts to influence elections through financial incentives and state agencies. Kamau notes that many former allies of retired President Uhuru Kenyatta have shifted allegiances based on public sentiment, with some joining Gachagua's camp and others remaining loyal to Ruto. 

He reveals that Kenyatta has chosen to respect the people's will and will not actively participate in the 2027 elections. Nominated MP Sabina Chege acknowledges that the Jubilee Party has been abandoned by its founders and is now focused on rejuvenation. While Chege remains loyal to Ruto and has been working to wrest control of Jubilee from Kenyatta, another faction led by Jeremiah Kioni supports former Interior CS Fred Matiang'i's presidential ambitions.

This internal division within the Jubilee Party mirrors the broader fragmentation of political alliances in Mt. Kenya. Party chairman Torome Saitoti has thrown his weight behind DCP and Gachagua, aligning himself with Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, DAP-Kenya boss Eugene Wamalwa, and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. Several former Jubilee members have also defected to Gachagua's camp, including Starehe MP Amos Mwago, former Limuru MP Peter Mwathi, and former Kiambu Town MP Jude Njomo. 

Meanwhile, Ruto has retained the support of Bahati MP Irene Njoki and Kinangop MP Kwenya Thuku, among others. Kenyatta's cousin, Kung'u Muigai, has stated that while the former President supports Jubilee's continued existence, he has not endorsed any candidate for the top seat. Muigai emphasises Kenyatta's passion for youth leadership and people-centric governance, suggesting that he may eventually declare his stance publicly.

Gachagua has accused Ruto's allies of attempting to establish a new party in Murang'a to poach key political figures from his camp. He has also claimed that Ruto's strategists are reaching out to Kalonzo, Wamalwa, and Natembeya to secure their support for his re-election bid.