How Gachagua Fell Into Ruto’s Political Ambush in Mbeere North

President William Ruto’s camp secured a narrow win in the Mbeere North by-election, dealing a significant setback to former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The 27 November poll, widely viewed as a test of influence ahead of the 2027 General Election, ended with UDA candidate Leonard Muthende defeating Newton Kariuki, who was backed by Mr Gachagua, by 494 votes. Muthende received 15,802 votes against Kariuki’s 15,308. 

The result stood out given expectations that the contest would serve as a protest against the government following Gachagua’s impeachment earlier in the year. Instead, the ruling party strengthened its position in the region, reinforcing President Ruto’s authority in Mt Kenya.

Some analysts argue the race involved deeper political manoeuvring. Samuel Wang’ombe, a Mt Kenya commentator, said President Ruto placed Gachagua at a disadvantage by prompting him to drop his strongest aspirant, Duncan Mbui, in favour of Kariuki. 

Mbui later returned to the race under Chama Cha Kazi, an affiliate of the ruling coalition, and collected 2,480 votes, splitting the opposition vote and tightening the contest. Wang’ombe said the episode showed the President’s ability to combine strategy with state resources, noting that divisions within Gachagua’s team further weakened his bid.

The campaign also highlighted contrasting messages. While Gachagua’s camp focused on loyalty and political identity, Ruto’s allies centred their efforts on development commitments. Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku said the government identified local concerns, including water shortages, poor roads, insecurity, and delays in issuing title deeds, and presented immediate plans for intervention. 

Throughout the campaign, government departments operated visibly in the constituency, offering remedies to long-standing challenges. UDA chair Cecily Mbarire said the party promoted development priorities while their opponents relied on slogans, a message that appeared to resonate with voters who had expressed frustrations over poverty, infrastructure, and limited opportunities in a televised debate days before the vote.

The loss has weakened Gachagua’s political footing. According to analyst Malila Munywoki, the defeat forces him to reassess his strategy and may slow his efforts to position himself for a 2027 presidential bid. Munywoki added that some leaders who had considered aligning with him may now reconsider their plans following the government’s strong performance. 

Gachagua has dismissed the outcome, alleging bribery, intimidation, and the use of plainclothes police to influence the vote. His allies, including Mukurwe-ini MP John Kaguchia, also claimed the election was fraudulent, while several candidates accused both camps of irregularities.

The by-election has exposed growing divisions within Mt Kenya politics. Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri criticised Gachagua for presenting the contest as the launch of his presidential campaign, arguing that voters were not willing to disrupt regional representation by undermining Deputy President Kithure Kindiki.