Explained: How Ukraine's Gallium and Lithium Fit into Trump's Anti-China Policy

The United States, under the Trump administration, is nearing a deal with Ukraine to jointly develop the country's mineral resources, a move designed to secure access to materials deemed critical for the 21st-century economy and reduce reliance on China.

While the agreement has not yet been finalized, it signals a strategic shift in US foreign policy, particularly regarding resource acquisition and geopolitical maneuvering. The core impetus behind the potential agreement is to diversify the US supply chain for critical minerals, many of which are currently dominated by China. Rare earth elements, such as gallium—essential for advanced defense technologies—are not readily available within US borders.

China, a leading supplier of gallium, has previously leveraged its control over these resources, imposing export restrictions in response to US trade actions. Ukraine possesses deposits of 22 of the 34 minerals identified by the European Union as critical, making it a potentially valuable partner for the US. These include not only gallium, but also graphite, used in electric vehicles and nuclear reactors, and lithium, of which Ukraine possesses an estimated one-third of Europe's supply.

Former President Trump views the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine as an opportunity to secure alternative sources of these critical minerals, thus diminishing US dependence on China and enabling a more assertive approach towards Beijing. Trump's strategic interest in critical minerals also extends to Greenland, which holds substantial reserves. This strategy is seen as a countermeasure to the increasing cooperation between China and Russia across military, economic, and technological domains.

The Trump administration's approach has included softening the US stance toward Russia, a move that has drawn criticism from European allies. Trump's broader economic policies have targeted Chinese trade practices, supply chain vulnerabilities, and geopolitical strategies. These policies include tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of Chinese imports. Trump has also sought to justify these tariffs by alleging that Chinese manufacturers are responsible for the mass production of fentanyl trafficked into the US.

However, the situation remains complex. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that Russia currently controls approximately 20% of Ukraine's mineral resources due to the ongoing war. Furthermore, a lack of consistent investment in Ukraine's minerals sector over the past decade could delay returns for American investors.