Nearly 2 Million Illegal Migrants Left US Since January — But Do the Numbers Add Up?

Nearly two million undocumented migrants have left the United States voluntarily since January 2025, according to figures released by the Department of Homeland Security, alongside more than 600,000 formal deportations. 

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) says a total of over 2.5 million migrants have exited the country since President Donald Trump returned to office. Officials attribute most of these departures to what they describe as voluntary exits, rather than removals carried out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The administration argues that stricter enforcement and consistent application of immigration law are encouraging migrants to leave without being detained. Andrew Arthur, a former immigration judge, told the Washington Examiner that firm enforcement sends a clear signal, prompting people to depart on their own rather than face arrest and removal.

Meaning of “self-departure”

DHS defines self-departure as leaving the country without being formally apprehended or deported by immigration authorities. The approach has become more prominent as ICE seeks to manage a large undocumented population with a workforce of about 6,500 deportation officers.

Officials describe voluntary exits as a practical way to reduce migrant numbers without exceeding enforcement capacity. The White House has reinforced this message through frequent social media posts highlighting arrests, particularly involving migrants with criminal convictions. Border Patrol Chief Mike Banks said the intent is not to intimidate communities, but to discourage irregular migration, adding: “Do not come.”

Financial incentives and enforcement warnings

To increase participation, DHS has expanded an incentive programme for migrants who agree to leave. Those who register through the CBP Home mobile application may receive free flights to their country of origin, cash payments of up to $3,000, and waivers for certain civil penalties.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has warned that migrants who do not use the programme may face arrest and permanent bans on returning to the United States. Officials say the scheme reduces costs, noting that ICE estimates the average expense of arrest, detention and deportation at about $17,000 per person, far higher than the cost of voluntary travel and financial assistance.

Disputes over the data

Some analysts have questioned the accuracy of the figures. David Bier of the Cato Institute said the total may include legal migrants who left voluntarily or be based on incomplete records. Others point out that voluntary departures and enforced removals were previously reported separately, making comparisons with earlier periods difficult.

At the same time, ICE detention centres are operating at or near capacity, increasing pressure on immigration courts that already face significant backlogs. Rights organisations argue that many voluntary departures occur under restrictive conditions, limiting migrants’ ability to make a free choice.

Wider policy changes

The figures were released as part of a broader tightening of immigration policy. Earlier this month, the White House added seven countries—Syria, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan, Laos and Sierra Leone—to its travel restriction list. Holders of Palestinian Authority travel documents were also included.

With these additions, 20 countries are now subject to full or partial entry bans. The administration says the measures are necessary due to concerns about inadequate identity verification systems and potential national security risks.