Sifuna Overtakes Matiang’i, Kalonzo and Gachagua in New Presidential Poll

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the leading opposition contender for the 2027 presidential election, tying with President William Ruto at 31 percent in a new national opinion poll by Trends Insight for Africa (TIFA).

The survey, released on Thursday, November 12, 2026, suggests that Sifuna’s rapid climb has disrupted the opposition's pecking order while putting him within striking distance of a first-round majority if rival factions unite behind him.

According to TIFA, support for other opposition and potential presidential candidates stands at a combined 19 percent. If those voters rally behind the Nairobi Senator, his backing could approach the 50 percent threshold required to win the presidency outright.

"Still, if these popular figures/rankings persist, Sifuna’s status as the potential 'single/united Opposition candidate,' if there is one, will have to be acknowledged," TIFA said in its report.

Sifuna’s rise marks one of the sharpest shifts in the polling cycle. He recorded zero percent support in August 2022, September 2025, and November 2025 before climbing to 10 percent in May 2026 and 15 percent in June 2026. By November, his support had doubled to 31 percent, pushing him past established opposition figures.

As Sifuna gained ground, support for veteran contenders fell sharply. Jubilee Party leader and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i saw his rating drop from a peak of 32 percent in August 2022 to five percent in the latest survey. Matiang’i had previously polled 21 percent in September 2025, 18 percent in November 2025, and 14 percent in both May and June 2026.

Wiper Patriotic Front leader and former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka also lost ground, falling to nine percent from 25 percent in August 2022 and November 2025. His support stood at 19 percent in May 2026 and 13 percent in June 2026.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua registered four percent support, down from nine percent in May 2026 and seven percent in June 2026. Earlier polls placed Gachagua at two percent in August 2022, six percent in September 2025, and three percent in November 2025. Kiharu Member of Parliament Ndindi Nyoro received one percent, while support for other potential candidates dropped from 14 percent in September 2025 to one percent in November 2026.

On the government side, President Ruto has steadily rebuilt his national standing. TIFA data shows Ruto’s approval rose from 16 percent in September 2025 to 19 percent in November 2025, then reached 24 percent in May and June 2026 before hitting 31 percent in November 2026.

Among respondents backing Ruto’s re-election, Deputy President Kithure Kindiki remains the clear favorite to stay on the ticket. Kindiki commands 55 percent support as Ruto’s preferred running mate.

"Among all those who indicate their support for President Ruto’s re-election, there is a clear majority preference for his current deputy, Prof. Kithure Kindiki (55 per cent)," TIFA noted.

Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga finished a distant second among Ruto’s supporters at 12 percent, followed by Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho at nine percent. Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Oburu Oginga, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula each received four percent. Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya garnered two percent, while Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru polled one percent.

TIFA conducted the survey between October 26 and November 5, 2026, through face-to-face household interviews with 2,036 respondents across nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, and Western. Interviews were held primarily in Kiswahili, with some conducted in English.

The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.16 percent, though margins are wider for smaller regional and demographic sub-samples. Undecided voters dropped from 20 percent in June to 15 percent in November, while four percent of respondents declined to state a preference.

TIFA cautioned that the findings reflect current voter sentiment rather than a prediction of the 2027 outcome, noting that future alliances, campaign platforms, and official candidate declarations could alter the race.

"This survey finds President Ruto tied with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna in terms of popularity regarding Kenyans’ preferred winner of next year’s presidential election, leaving aside the question of whether respondents expect/intend to vote," the firm said.