How Uhuru, Raila's Political Moves Could Shape Kenya's 2027 Presidential Race

Kenya's political landscape is undergoing significant realignments as key figures like former President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga position themselves ahead of the 2027 General Election.

Recent strategic moves by their respective parties signal an intensifying power struggle that could shape the country's next leadership. The Jubilee Party, closely linked to Kenyatta, has nominated former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i as its presidential candidate. This decision, announced following consultations with party representatives, is a preliminary step towards broader coalition talks with other opposition parties, according to Jubilee Party Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni.

Matiang'i, who served from 2013 to 2022, is known for his firm approach in government leadership. Meanwhile, Raila Odinga's ODM party is recalibrating its strategy after Odinga’s recent unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission Chairmanship. Despite this setback, ODM is committed to fielding a presidential candidate in 2027.

Senator Oburu Oginga, Raila's elder brother, has emphasized that the party is actively preparing for the elections and seeking alliances with like-minded parties to form a coalition capable of winning. ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has expressed skepticism about President William Ruto's prospects for re-election, even with Raila's support. Sifuna has openly criticized the current administration for its negative impact on the lives and livelihoods of Kenyans and awaits Raila's next political move.

Adding further complexity to the political dynamics, Wiper Democratic Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) leader Eugene Wamalwa have met with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Musyoka has urged Raila to join opposition forces against what he describes as the failing Kenya Kwanza regime. Gachagua, conversely, has encouraged Raila to remain engaged in Kenyan politics, suggesting that his leadership is still needed in the country.

Political analyst Dismus Mokua offers a perspective that no current politician appears capable of challenging President Ruto in the upcoming election. He interprets Jubilee's endorsement of Matiang'i as a strategic maneuver to stimulate public discourse on his potential candidacy. Mokua describes Raila as an enigmatic figure whose eventual endorsement will align with his own strategic interests.

The political maneuvers and alliance-building expected over the next few years will be critical in determining Kenya's leadership in 2027. These developments unfold against a backdrop of economic and social challenges, as various factions jockey for influence and position themselves to appeal to a diverse electorate.