NIS Warns of Impeachment Plot Following Ruto-Raila Power Deal

A strategic power-sharing agreement between Kenyan President William Ruto and opposition leader Raila Odinga has recently reshaped the nation’s political landscape, prompted by warnings from the National Intelligence Service (NIS) about potential instability.

The accord emerges following the NIS’s cautionary advice to President Ruto against relinquishing the National Assembly’s Majority Leader position to the opposition, citing risks of impeachment. This intelligence came on the heels of Raila's unsuccessful bid for the African Union Commission chairmanship, a development that further strained Kenya’s political environment. Raila's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) had been advocating for significant roles within both the Parliament and the Executive branches.

In response, President Ruto has chosen a power-sharing arrangement to avert political instability, allowing the ODM to secure leadership roles in pivotal parliamentary committees, including the Public Accounts Committee and the Budget Committee. Kimani Ichung’wah has, however, retained his position as Majority Leader. The deal also encompassed the allocation of additional Cabinet positions to ODM members, aiming to foster governmental stability.

Complicating this arrangement was a High Court ruling that reinstated the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance as the legitimate Majority party, nullifying an earlier decision by Speaker Moses Wetang’ula that favoured Kenya Kwanza. The court’s intervention highlighted the constitutional importance of the Majority Leader's role in legislative and governmental oversight. The engagement between Raila and Ruto, initiated after protests against the Finance Bill last year, has garnered mixed reactions.

A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the ODM and Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is viewed by some as a step toward national unity, while others are concerned that it compromises the opposition’s ability to provide effective oversight. The appropriateness of ODM members chairing oversight committees, given their integration into the government, has faced scrutiny.

The MoU outlines a ten-point agenda designed to tackle Kenya’s socio-economic challenges, including strengthening devolution, combating corruption, and promoting inclusivity. ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has cautioned that the party will withdraw from the agreement if its terms are violated.