Raila’s Age and Gachagua’s Impeachment Push Them Toward Kingmaker Status

As Kenya approaches the 2027 General Election, the political arena is witnessing a significant transformation. 

Veteran politicians Raila Odinga and Rigathi Gachagua are positioning themselves not as direct contenders for the presidency, but as potential kingmakers, a role dictated by personal circumstances and strategic realignments within the country’s evolving electoral dynamics. Raila Odinga, the long-time opposition leader and five-time presidential candidate, faces considerable speculation about his political future. 

His age, expected to be 83 by the time of the next election, coupled with a perceived decline in influence among a rapidly changing electorate, casts doubt on a possible sixth presidential bid. Sources within his party suggest he may reprise his 2002 role, when his endorsement of Mwai Kibaki helped end KANU’s 24-year rule. Deputy Party Leader Godfrey Osotsi said, “You know when Raila is a coach, he’s more lethal than when he’s a player,” suggesting Odinga's influence may be more potent behind the scenes.

Opiyo Wandayi, Energy and Petroleum Cabinet Secretary, contends that Mr. Odinga remains the political leader of the Luo community. His role, Wandayi argues, will be pivotal in determining the community’s political direction in 2027. Rigathi Gachagua, the former Deputy President, is currently barred from contesting due to his impeachment in 2024. Though he may yet clear his name through the courts, his current posture suggests a preference for wielding influence rather than seeking direct candidacy. 

His rhetoric has grown increasingly combative. He has vowed to do “everything in his power” to prevent Dr Ruto from securing a second term, accusing the President of betraying the Mt Kenya electorate and displaying a misplaced sense of entitlement. 

“These same people from Mt Kenya who voted for you have the capacity to support somebody else,” he said earlier this year. “It must not be you.”

Both Odinga and Gachagua possess substantial political capital. Odinga retains influence in traditional strongholds, including Nyanza, Western, Coast, and parts of Nairobi, while Gachagua continues to exert influence in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region. However, their paths to power appear increasingly indirect. Analysts suggest they may opt to back other candidates, potentially reshaping the race from behind the scenes.

President William Ruto, who intends to seek re-election, now faces a more complex challenge than in 2022. A career politician since 1997, Ruto’s support base shows signs of erosion, particularly in Mt Kenya, where Gachagua is actively campaigning to redirect votes toward the opposition. The Mt Kenya bloc delivered nearly three million votes to Ruto in the last election, which, combined with support from the North Rift, accounted for approximately 63 percent of his total vote tally. 

“These same people from Mt Kenya who voted for you have the capacity to support somebody else,” Gachagua said earlier this year.

In recent months, Gachagua has intensified his efforts to build a coalition around Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, a frontrunner for the opposition ticket. Gachagua has publicly endorsed Musyoka, framing him as a unifying figure with national appeal and a proven track record in coalition-building. Their alliance, symbolised by the rallying cry “Hi Cousins,” reflects a strategic outreach to communities beyond Mt Kenya, including the Kamba, Kisii, Luhya, and Maasai.

During a recent tour of the United States, Gachagua dismissed the possibility of dialogue with the current administration, insisting that change must come through the ballot. He has positioned himself as a champion of constitutional transition, rejecting any backroom deals and calling for transformative leadership.

The ambiguity surrounding Odinga’s intentions has prompted debate within ODM. The changing demographic, which sees the rise of Gen-Z voters, has also complicated his prospects. However, he may still run, if only to strengthen his bargaining position.

President Ruto is recalibrating his strategy. With Mt Kenya's support waning, he is banking on Odinga’s traditional bases to compensate. In 2022, these regions delivered over five million votes to Odinga, supplemented by support from Musyoka’s base. Whether this coalition can be reassembled under Ruto’s banner remains uncertain.

Ultimately, the fate of the presidency may hinge less on who runs and more on who backs whom.