Why Unga Prices May Rise Even With a Strong Maize Harvest

Maize prices in Kenya are climbing, putting pressure on the government’s promise to keep flour affordable for households.

The Ministry of Agriculture has acknowledged potential supply challenges, citing increasing competition between animal feed producers and maize millers for grain intended for human consumption. This demand has pushed farm-gate prices to between Sh2,800 and Sh3,250 per 90kg bag. 

The National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) is offering Sh3,500 per bag to secure grain for the Strategic Food Reserve and has purchased over 100,000 bags in the past month, against a target of two million. Despite a projected national maize yield of 70 million bags this season, up from 67 million in 2024, market conditions are complicating the government’s optimism. 

Millers warn that flour prices could rise above Sh150 per two-kilogram packet without immediate interventions. “The unga prices are likely to hit above Sh150 due to the current high demand unless the government puts in place urgent intervention measures,” said David Maina, a miller based in Eldoret.

President William Ruto, however, expressed confidence that households will continue to benefit from lower flour costs. In his recent State of the Nation address, he noted that retail prices have fallen from Sh250 in 2022 to as low as Sh130, attributing the reduction to subsidies on fertiliser and seed. 

Over 21 million bags of fertiliser have been distributed in recent years, saving farmers billions in production costs. “This year alone, we delivered 7 million bags of fertiliser and 35 million kilos of certified seed. In 2026, we will distribute 12.5 million bags across all 1,450 wards,” he said.

On the ground, millers and traders in the North Rift, Kenya’s breadbasket, are stockpiling maize in anticipation of shortages and further price increases. Farmers in the region, motivated by prices above Sh3,200 per bag, are selling quickly to reinvest in the next planting season. 

“Consumers should prepare for an anticipated increase in unga prices, as most millers have pitched camp in the North Rift region, mopping up maize from farmers and stockpiling the produce, clearly indicating impending shortages,” said Ezekiel Kosgei, a farmer from Moiben.

Kenya’s maize production has steadily grown, rising from 42.1 million bags in 2020 to 67 million in 2024. The current projection of 70 million bags reflects favourable weather and the impact of subsidy programmes. 

However, with annual consumption at approximately 45 million bags and imports averaging nearly 300,000 tonnes over the past five years, the balance between supply, demand, and affordability remains delicate.