President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Vladimir Putin
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As the conflict enters its fourth year, the war in Ukraine, initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin in early 2022, has devolved into a protracted struggle marked by significant miscalculations and a complex interplay of motivations.
What was initially projected as a swift operation to overthrow the pro-Western government in Kyiv and reassert Russian influence has resulted in a war of attrition, with approximately one-fifth of Ukrainian territory now under Russian control. The invasion's roots lie in Putin's historical revisionism and geopolitical ambitions. Central to Russia's justification for the invasion is a narrative that questions Ukraine’s legitimacy as a sovereign entity, alleging the presence of Nazi influence within the Ukrainian government and asserting the need to "demilitarize and denazify" the country.
This perspective denies Ukraine's distinct cultural and political identity, portraying it instead as an artificial construct. Geopolitical considerations, particularly NATO's eastward expansion, also factor prominently into Russia’s rationale. The prospect of Ukraine joining the alliance is viewed by the Kremlin as an encroachment on its security interests, despite NATO's insistence that it has no aggressive intentions. Russia's military actions in Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014) preceded and arguably catalyzed NATO's increased presence in Eastern Europe, further escalating tensions.
Beyond strategic calculations, personal animosity between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has become increasingly evident. The Kremlin's attempts to delegitimize Zelensky, including initial efforts to storm the presidential compound and a sustained refusal to engage in direct peace talks, highlight a desire to remove the Ukrainian leader and install a regime more aligned with Russian interests. Despite the postponement of elections due to the ongoing conflict, Moscow continues to question Zelensky's legitimacy.
The human and economic toll of the war is immense. Tens of thousands have been killed and millions displaced. While Russia has annexed four regions in eastern and southern Ukraine, its control remains contested by Ukrainian forces. The conflict has also inflicted severe economic damage on both nations. High inflation and increased defense spending are straining Russia's budget, while Ukraine has suffered significant economic losses due to Russian occupation and infrastructure damage. As the war continues, a resolution remains elusive.
Meanwhile, high-level talks between the United States and Ukraine are set to commence in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with Washington anticipating "substantial progress" on multiple fronts, according to a senior US diplomat. The discussions, scheduled for Tuesday, involve Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz on the U.S. side. Their Ukrainian counterparts will engage in discussions expected to cover security protocols, territorial issues, and enhanced intelligence sharing.
A key objective for the US is finalizing a deal concerning critical minerals. Witkoff expressed optimism about the prospects for the agreement. The talks occur amid mounting pressure from the US President Donald Trump on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to a swift ceasefire with Russia, despite the absence of a US security guarantee. Tensions between Trump and Zelensky surfaced publicly ten days prior, with Trump asserting Zelensky's reluctance to end the conflict.