Raila Men in Government Caught in Crossfire of Shifting Alliances

ODM leader Raila Odinga has said the party may field its own presidential candidate in the 2027 general election, raising fresh doubts over its cooperation with President William Ruto’s administration.

Raila made the statement during a parliamentary group meeting with ODM legislators, challenging the assumption that the party would not contest the presidency. 

“Who told you that ODM will not have a presidential candidate in 2027?” he asked, departing from earlier assurances, including those made at the funeral of former MP Phoebe Asiyo, that the existing working relationship with Ruto’s government would remain intact until the next election.

The comments have cast uncertainty over the future of the March 2025 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between ODM and Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA). The agreement, unveiled at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre, outlines a ten-point agenda centred on governance reforms, youth employment, devolution, and anti-corruption efforts. 

However, it does not include any formal arrangement regarding support for a joint presidential candidate in 2027. The MoU has seen ODM figures appointed to key government roles, including Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), John Mbadi (National Treasury), Hassan Joho (Mining), and Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives). 

Raila recent remarks now place some of these appointments under pressure, with several officials expressing concern over the future of their roles should the alliance shift. Some have suggested that continued service to the nation may outweigh party considerations if political realignment becomes necessary.

President Ruto has continued to engage ODM-aligned leaders, appointing long-time Raila allies such as Prof Lawrence Gumbe to influential positions and restructuring state agencies to favour loyalists. Analysts interpret these moves as efforts to secure broader support in ODM strongholds, particularly in the Nyanza region.

Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga, Raila's elder brother, has maintained that ODM’s cooperation with Ruto depends on the full implementation of the MoU. 

“We shall work with them until 2027, and if we recognise that we worked well, we shall agree; if not, we shall part ways,” he said, emphasising that the alliance is conditional.

UDA officials have played down concerns of a potential fallout. National Organising Secretary Vincent Kawaya said Raila's efforts to strengthen ODM are not a threat to the coalition, arguing that a strong partner helps maintain political stability. 

Deputy Secretary General Omboko Milemba added that any decisions concerning 2027 would be jointly made by Ruto and Raila at the appropriate time. Political analysts see Raila comments as a calculated move to retain political leverage.