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For the fourth time, Raila is running for the top seat in Kenya for which the winner will be decided on August 8, 2017. Analysis of the total registered voters by region shows that President Uhuru Kenyatta will garner 51.22% of the vote against Raila Odinga’s 42.98%. The balance of 5.8% will be shared by the other candidates running for President.
Table 1 below estimates that Uhuru will get 10.04 million votes compared to Raila’s 8.43 million. The other candidates running for President are estimated to receive 1.14 million or approximately 5.8% of all votes. Examination of the voting regions indicates that Uhuru will dominate in Central (at 90%), Rift Valley (at 75%), and the North Eastern (at 60%); the three regions carry 8.06 million or 41.1% of all votes. Raila, on the other hand is expected to dominate two regions; Nyanza (at 90%) and Eastern (at 65%). Nyanza and Eastern regions carry 5.65 million or 28.8% of all votes. Votes from the remaining regions which include Coast, Western, Nairobi, Diaspora and prisons are estimated to be a 50/50 split between Uhuru and Raila.
Odds Against Raila’s Electability
Previous runs by Raila Odinga for President in 1997, 2007, and 2013 were unsuccessful. As such, it is unclear why Raila still thinks he can prevail during the fourth attempt. Some of the odds working against Raila’s electability include: the fact that he is 72 years old; lacks tangible development record; participated in the unsuccessful 1982 coup de’tat; exemplifies radical activism; has political ideologies favoring social democracy; and has exercised dictatorial tendencies in the Luoland on who gets elected in every Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) position from the Governors to the MCAs.
Raila’s Development Record
On March 03, 2012, in Ugenya constituency, Raila Odinga’s older brother Oburu Odinga said: “The issue of my brother (Raila Odinga) should not arise in this campaign because I just want to bring development to this county”. Oburu Odinga’s quote is clear testimony that even Raila’s own siblings acknowledge that their brother Raila is lacking on development; that is why Oburu decided to distance himself from his own brother.
Raila’s record as the Member of Parliament (MP) of Lang’ata where he served for 20 years is marginal at best. His tenure as MP only provided grim and hopelessness as crime, poverty and disease continued to constrict his constituents especially in the slums of Kibera and Kismayo. During Raila’s term as Prime Minister of Kenya which ran between year 2007 to 2013, not much development was accomplished partly due to Raila’s interference with the structures Kibaki had put in place between year 2002 and 2007.
NASA’s Flagbearer – How Strategic was it?
The question is whether NASA made a grave mistake of nominating Raila as the party’s flagbearer. Was Raila fronted in order to satisfy his big ego or was it out of fear of disintegration of NASA if he was marginalized? Did NASA embrace Raila because the coalition outfit was hopeless in finding a better suited candidate? And why was Kalonzo selected as Raila’s running mate? Would NASA have been better off if either Isaac Ruto, Moses Wetangula or Musalia Mudavadi was agreed on as the running mates? It is likely these questions will be answered after August 8, 2017.
Raila/Kalonzo duo is the same combination that competed, and was beaten by Uhuru/Ruto in 2017. Therefore, 2017 is nothing new but a rematch of 2013. problem for the Raila/Kalonzo duo is that their fortunes since 2013 have been diminishing. Raila and Kalonzo have been busy engaging the nation with demonstrations against the IEBC, filing cases challenging the established systems, playing divisive politics, inciting their followers with hopes they would turn against the government, et cetera. They have consistently challenged and disagreed with the structures of Jubilee administration, but have failed to offer viable alternatives. To the contrary, the fortunes for Uhuru/Ruto have exponentially expanded partly because Uhuru and Ruto have indiscriminately engaged the nation with major development projects. To put it mildly, the calculus for the NASA team has been flat or declining while that of the Jubilee team has had significant upticks. If someone beats you in a 100-meter dash, and the same person beats you again, would you expect different results the next time around?
CORD/NASA “Nusu Mkate” Theatrics
On January 04, 2014, CORD leaders declared to explore various avenues including rigging the August 8, 2017 general elections to oust Jubilee from power. Cord declared Raila will win the Presidency in 2017 by hook or crook. Following this declaration were the 2016 protest witnessed in Nairobi and elsewhere targeted at ousting and disbanding the same IEBC. Mind you, in large part IEBC was constituted by Raila himself when he was part of the Coalition Government.
Let it also be remembered that Raila was in the driving seat in the creation of IEBC that was next to impossible to remove; and to honor his MOU with the Muslim community, Raila ensured IEBC was disproportionately staffed with Muslim commissioners. One can only assume that, Raila expected “his” IEBC to guarantee he became the next President of Kenya in 2013. When that failed to materialize, he began labeling the IEBC commissioners as bad people and accusing the commissioners of mismanagement of the polls which eventually led to their forced resignations and reconstitution of the sitting IEBC.
NASA wants “Nusu Mkate” at all costs; and that is the basis of all the theatrics Kenya has witnessed over the recent past including protests against IEBC, threats to boycott the elections, filing multiple cases against reconstituted IEBC, accusing the military, cabinet secretaries and police as agents of rigging, et cetera. NASA hopes that one of the theatrics will bear fruit and help them into the government through the back door. Unfortunately, the message from Jubilee has been loud and clear; no “Nusu Mkate”.
To conclude, unless something magical happens in the next few days, the numbers have spoken. Uhuru and Ruto will be in office for another five (5) years. By 2022, Raila’s odds of winning the Presidency will be quite slim if not completely absent. He will be 78 years old which literally means it is time for opposition to seriously consider succession planning and begin grooming the youth in preparation for 2022.
By Paddy Mwembu, Los Angeles, California | mwembu@yahoo.com
Comments
The writer Sounds Guilty as Hell for Being Paid to LIE.
You really think Uhuru can get 50% in Western??
I wondered the same thing. I dont think Uhuru will even manage 25% in this region.
Nope!
Sometimes polls can be deceiving. No conclusion until we get actual results after August 8, 2017
RIGGING deceives far more than Polls. It happened in the in 2000 and 2014 against Al Gore and John Kerry respectively.
You must definitely be a kikuyu. Where are u getting your nonsense numbers from.
What makes u think that kikuyu is the only tribe to produce presidents? Again if it were not that you are thievies and murderes, the presidency would be in Luo Nyanza since 07.
The time as come for your corrupt group to go home. Ho,
I forgot to mention that I'm not a luo. So don't think otherwise.
Ouru to get 50% in western? What are you smoking?
Smoking what Uhuru is ALLEGED to smoke: Banghi.
Hehehehe nice observation!Uhuru may not get 50% in western but all he needs is 30% in naswa areas.The place he mite get 50% is kamba land??According to iebc register central eastern rift valley which is jubilees strongholds commands 11.5millions voters n knowing how tribal Kenyans votes its a reality they will vote so.Rao,western,nyanza,kamba, strongholds commands 8.5m n this is according to the iebc register which was made public.Raiya has lost this elections no wonder pple r bin eliminated right n left.Remember raila pple warned Kenyans saying for raila to b president pple must die???But 8/8 Majority of Kenyans cannot wait to vote for peace n development Uhuru Jamba ya bururi.
Uhuru will get LESS than 50% in Ukambani. Then he can Take with him Pikipiki zake za Machief.
Guys all of you have made your points and they are clear in black and white. Yes you hate and bash Kikuyus like they ate all the breakfast, which they worked for and prepared without any input from anyone else. Why do you hate them to the extent that you call them names that you would not take kindly if anybody calls you? Would say you are not tribalists yourselves? Save yourself ulcers and vote on August 8, otherwise be quiet for five years after that date.
Kikuyus are LOVERS of Themselves and MOST haters of others.
Your own table indicates a Raila win. A real political pundit uses data-driven analysis before reaching a conclusion. You have decided to bury your head in the sand by suggesting that Raila will get 50% in Western and Coast. Reality shows that 80% minimum is what we can give Raila in those two regions. That would be 1.5 and 1.2m respectively. Rift Valley –Raila has made inroads and 30% minimum is expected, giving Raila 1.4 m. In Nairobi -Raila is ahead, but let's leave at 50% because of the exodus to the current rural areas.
Remember Rift Valley is big and non-Kalenjin votes (Maasai, Samburu, Turkana etc) are volatile as ever. The tend is that they are moving towards NASA
Thus, assuming equal turnout rates, this is the bare minimum Raila can get:
Western 1.544, Coast =1.368, R.V =1.4, Nyanza =2.28, Eastern= 1.81, NEP=.19, Nairobi =1.06, Central = –0.27, Total= 9.922m (10 million strong, remember?)
Raila 50.59
Uhuru 49.41%
Correct. Raila in Coast and Western: 80% Minimum.
My fellow kenyans, remember you are kenyas first, tribe is what you was born into, that is not going to change, what we must understand is that we should be proud of being Kenyas, last time somebody asked me where are you?. They wanted to know what Country not tribe, we all need one another, let us work hand in hand regardless of what tribe you are from, at the end of the day we are kenyans, lastly let us respect one another.
Let me edit previous calculations. I did not include other candidates. If we include other candidates (5.8%), the conservative results estimate would be
Raila--9.92m --50.59%
Uhuru -8.55m --43.5%
Others-1.14m ----5.8%
Total--19.61---100.00%
Sal n hekima we will know in 6days.Majority of us who r here in Kenya will vote for the right person n let us agree that whoever wins wr either roasted or kamuliwad?Naswa have sealed all the rigging loopholes as they may say so hopefully if uhuru wins they wont diarrhoea that they rigged themselves
RIGGING thieves Killed Chris Msando (the msn who Sealed the Loopholes). So let's hope the Sealing (of Rigging Loopholes) is Intact.
Safe Kenyans form tribal slags.It doesn't matter where you come from ,just go cast your vote to your candidate of choice.Lets show our youngsters unity and shun tribalism .By the end of the day that person from your tribe does not put food on the table for you .If there are chaos in the country they will go to other countries and you and your loved ones will be slaughtered alone .So save us for this animal called tribalism.
Aah! It is interesting to look back at people's comments before and after the fact...displays of misplaced over-confidence, bashing of a community, eeeish.
Loud mouth that is not supported by facts only blows hot air. Those who hate Kikuyus; Kikuyus I believe have nothing to apologize for. Similarly you also should not apologize for being born in your community. We are who we are because that is our destiny.
LIES!
You must be a Jubilee Supporter and possibly a kikuyu...
Raila has the numbers and Kenyans are tired of being taken advantage of year after year! Change will bring to future generations! Stop your tribal posts!