Court Verdict Shakes Up Ruto-Raila Pact

Kenya's fragile political truce faces a potential disruption following a recent High Court decision that temporarily halted the National Dialogue Committee's (NADCO) proposed audit of the 2022 presidential election.

This development throws into question the sincerity of the ongoing dialogue between the ruling Kenya Kwanza coalition and the opposition Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya. The inclusion of the election audit in the dialogue process marked a significant concession by Kenya Kwanza which had initially resisted the demand. Azimio, led by Raila Odinga, had persistently pushed for the audit, viewing it as a potential vindication of their claims of electoral impropriety. Notably, Odinga had previously challenged the official results in the Supreme Court, but his petition was dismissed. Recent events suggest that Azimio's primary focus might have been on the 2022 polls all along.

Some observers believe that their vocal criticism of the high cost of living last year served primarily as a tool for mobilizing support during anti-government protests. These protests stemmed from Odinga's allegations of a manipulated election, based on a purported dossier showing him winning by a significant margin. The Supreme Court, however, had already validated the official results declaring William Ruto the winner, dismissing Odinga's evidence as fabricated. President Ruto and his allies have consistently opposed revisiting the election, arguing that the Supreme Court's ruling serves as the final arbiter.

This rationale mirrors the argument presented by the petitioner who has successfully obtained the temporary injunction against the audit. A permanent rejection of the audit would undoubtedly be seen as a victory for Ruto, bolstering his claim of a legitimate win. Further strengthening Ruto's position is the lack of legal challenges to his other proposals put forward during the dialogue, such as the creation of a Prime Cabinet Secretary position and the legal enshrining of affirmative action funds. This strategy potentially placates key figures within Kenya Kwanza, like Musalia Mudavadi, while offering an incentive for future alliances.

The outcome of the court case regarding the audit will significantly influence Azimio's approach to the upcoming general election. A loss would be a major setback for Odinga as evidenced by the dismissive and suspicious reactions from his allies towards the court's decision. However, Azimio leadership seems to be attempting to downplay the significance of the audit. Statements from Odinga's camp indicate a shift in focus towards other goals, such as securing a position within the African Union. This could be a strategic move to manage internal dissent within Azimio and present a more unified front moving forward.