Infotrak Survey Ranks ODM, UDA, DCP Top Parties in Western Kenya

Western Kenya’s voting patterns are shifting, with new Infotrak opinion polls showing changes in party support and emerging influence among senior political figures ahead of the 2027 General Election.

An Infotrak survey conducted among 602 respondents in Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia and Trans Nzoia counties places the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) as the most preferred party in the region, with 25 percent support. 

The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) follows with 20 per cent, while the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) records 7 percent. Ford Kenya and the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) trail with 4 percent and 2 percent respectively. Smaller parties, including Wiper, Jubilee and Maendeleo Chap Chap, together account for 5 per cent of respondents.

Support varies across counties. ODM leads in Kakamega and Busia, while UDA records its strongest showing in Bungoma. In Vihiga, support for ODM and UDA is nearly equal. Trans Nzoia shows a more even spread of preferences, with ODM holding a narrow lead.

Gender-based analysis indicates that ODM attracts equal support from male and female voters. UDA performs slightly better among men, while DCP shows similar levels of support across both genders.

The survey was conducted using Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews (CATI) among registered voters aged 18 and above. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

A second Infotrak poll, carried out days later, focuses on presidential preferences and political influence in the region. President William Ruto leads the presidential preference ratings in Western Kenya with 25 percent support. 

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i follows at 15 percent, while Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya registers 13 percent. Other figures, including Kalonzo Musyoka and Babu Owino, record single-digit support. A quarter of respondents remain undecided.

The same survey identifies Natembeya as the most influential political figure among the Abaluhya, with 50 percent of respondents naming him. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi follows at 32 percent, while National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula records 29 percent. ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna also features prominently, particularly in Busia County.

County-level results show that Natembeya’s influence is strongest in Trans Nzoia, Mudavadi leads in Vihiga, Sifuna dominates in Busia, and Wetang’ula maintains his base in Bungoma. This second poll sampled 600 respondents and was conducted on 29 December.